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Group F · Matchday 1 · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara · Jun 14, 20:00 UTC
🇳🇱 Netherlandsvs🇯🇵 Japan
50.5%draw 25.9%23.6%
Expected goals: NED 1.83 · JPN 1.00
| Source | NED win | Draw | JPN win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.0% | 24.5% | 19.5% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 48.1% | 26.5% | 25.3% |
| Blend (published) | 50.5% | 25.9% | 23.6% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows NED, columns JPN
0123450
7.1%
6.1%
3.6%
1.2%
18.9%
12.3%
6.5%
2.2%
0.5%
28.9%
8.9%
5.2%
2.0%
0.5%
35.4%
5.4%
2.7%
1.1%
42.5%
2.5%
1.3%
50.9%
0.9%
1–1 12.3%1–0 8.9%2–1 8.9%2–0 8.9%0–0 7.1%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇳🇱NEDNetherlands2000effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2000
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Virgil van Dijk, Frenkie de Jong, Cody Gakpo.
🇯🇵JPNJapan1885effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1885
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Takefusa Kubo, Kaoru Mitoma, Wataru Endo.