WC26 AnalyticsMonsterra Capital · World Cup 2026
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Group E · Matchday 3 · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City · Jun 25, 20:00 UTC

🇨🇼 Curaçaovs🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
9.7%draw 16.3%74.0%

Expected goals: CUW 0.87 · CIV 2.12

SourceCUW winDrawCIV win
Model13.5%21.1%65.4%
Market (Pinnacle)8.0%14.3%77.7%
Blend (published)9.7%16.3%74.0%

Scoreline probabilities

Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows CUW, columns CIV

0123450
4.5%
11.3%
12.8%
9.1%
4.8%
2.0%
1
2.6%
7.8%
11.1%
7.9%
4.2%
1.8%
2
1.4%
2.9%
3.3%
3.4%
1.8%
0.8%
3
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
0.5%
4
5
02 12.8%01 11.3%12 11.1%03 9.1%13 7.9%

Model factors

How each team's effective rating is built

🇨🇼CUW1600effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1600
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Juninho Bacuna, Leandro Bacuna, Tahith Chong.

🇨🇮CIV1770effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1770
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Franck Kessié, Simon Adingra, Sébastien Haller.