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Group E · Matchday 3 · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City · Jun 25, 20:00 UTC
🇨🇼 Curaçaovs🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
9.7%draw 16.3%74.0%
Expected goals: CUW 0.87 · CIV 2.12
| Source | CUW win | Draw | CIV win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.5% | 21.1% | 65.4% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 8.0% | 14.3% | 77.7% |
| Blend (published) | 9.7% | 16.3% | 74.0% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows CUW, columns CIV
0123450
4.5%
11.3%
12.8%
9.1%
4.8%
2.0%
12.6%
7.8%
11.1%
7.9%
4.2%
1.8%
21.4%
2.9%
3.3%
3.4%
1.8%
0.8%
30.8%
0.9%
0.7%
0.5%
450–2 12.8%0–1 11.3%1–2 11.1%0–3 9.1%1–3 7.9%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇨🇼CUWCuraçao1600effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1600
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Juninho Bacuna, Leandro Bacuna, Tahith Chong.
🇨🇮CIVIvory Coast1770effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1770
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Franck Kessié, Simon Adingra, Sébastien Haller.