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Group E · Matchday 3 · NRG Stadium, Houston · Jun 25, 20:00 UTC
🇪🇨 Ecuadorvs🇩🇪 Germany
22.1%draw 25.7%52.2%
Expected goals: ECU 1.10 · GER 1.67
| Source | ECU win | Draw | GER win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.1% | 26.1% | 49.8% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 21.2% | 25.5% | 53.3% |
| Blend (published) | 22.1% | 25.7% | 52.2% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows ECU, columns GER
0123450
7.1%
10.0%
9.2%
5.1%
2.1%
0.7%
15.5%
12.2%
10.1%
5.6%
2.3%
0.8%
23.5%
5.8%
5.2%
3.1%
1.3%
31.3%
2.1%
1.8%
1.1%
40.6%
51–1 12.2%1–2 10.1%0–1 10.0%0–2 9.2%0–0 7.1%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇪🇨ECUEcuador1900effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1900
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Moisés Caicedo, Piero Hincapié, Kendry Páez.
🇩🇪GERGermany1980effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1980
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Joshua Kimmich.