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Group E · Matchday 2 · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles · Jun 21, 00:00 UTC
🇪🇨 Ecuadorvs🇨🇼 Curaçao
80.6%draw 12.5%6.9%
Expected goals: ECU 2.98 · CUW 0.62
| Source | ECU win | Draw | CUW win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 84.0% | 11.5% | 4.5% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 79.2% | 12.9% | 7.9% |
| Blend (published) | 80.6% | 12.5% | 6.9% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows ECU, columns CUW
0123450
3.4%
2.0%
0.8%
17.5%
6.0%
2.4%
211.7%
7.2%
2.5%
0.7%
311.7%
7.2%
2.2%
0.5%
48.7%
5.3%
1.6%
55.2%
3.2%
1.0%
2–0 11.7%3–0 11.7%4–0 8.7%1–0 7.5%2–1 7.2%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇪🇨ECUEcuador1900effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1900
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Moisés Caicedo, Piero Hincapié, Kendry Páez.
🇨🇼CUWCuraçao1600effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1600
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Juninho Bacuna, Leandro Bacuna, Tahith Chong.