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Group E · Matchday 2 · MetLife Stadium, New York/New Jersey · Jun 20, 20:00 UTC
🇩🇪 Germanyvs🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
64.4%draw 20.6%15.0%
Expected goals: GER 2.35 · CIV 0.78
| Source | GER win | Draw | CIV win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.8% | 18.2% | 10.0% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 61.2% | 21.6% | 17.2% |
| Blend (published) | 64.4% | 20.6% | 15.0% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows GER, columns CIV
0123450
5.7%
4.2%
2.0%
0.5%
18.6%
9.8%
4.7%
1.2%
210.8%
8.5%
4.2%
1.4%
38.5%
6.6%
2.6%
0.8%
45.0%
3.9%
1.5%
52.3%
1.8%
0.7%
2–0 10.8%1–1 9.8%1–0 8.6%3–0 8.5%2–1 8.5%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇩🇪GERGermany1980effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1980
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Joshua Kimmich.
🇨🇮CIVIvory Coast1770effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1770
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Franck Kessié, Simon Adingra, Sébastien Haller.