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Group E · Matchday 1 · BC Place, Vancouver · Jun 14, 23:00 UTC
🇨🇮 Ivory Coastvs🇪🇨 Ecuador
23.5%draw 31.0%45.5%
Expected goals: CIV 0.96 · ECU 1.91
| Source | CIV win | Draw | ECU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.8% | 23.6% | 58.6% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 26.0% | 34.2% | 39.8% |
| Blend (published) | 23.5% | 31.0% | 45.5% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows CIV, columns ECU
0123450
8.5%
7.7%
8.0%
5.1%
2.4%
0.9%
16.1%
14.8%
7.7%
4.9%
2.3%
0.9%
23.5%
6.6%
6.3%
2.4%
1.1%
31.1%
2.1%
2.0%
1.3%
40.5%
51–1 14.8%0–0 8.5%0–2 8.0%0–1 7.7%1–2 7.7%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇨🇮CIVIvory Coast1770effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1770
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Franck Kessié, Simon Adingra, Sébastien Haller.
🇪🇨ECUEcuador1900effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1900
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Moisés Caicedo, Piero Hincapié, Kendry Páez.