← All fixtures
Group D · Matchday 3 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami · Jun 26, 02:00 UTC
🇵🇾 Paraguayvs🇦🇺 Australia
41.9%draw 28.9%29.2%
Expected goals: PAR 1.33 · AUS 1.38
| Source | PAR win | Draw | AUS win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.9% | 27.7% | 37.4% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 44.9% | 29.4% | 25.8% |
| Blend (published) | 41.9% | 28.9% | 29.2% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows PAR, columns AUS
0123450
8.0%
6.4%
5.0%
2.3%
0.8%
19.4%
13.7%
6.6%
3.0%
1.1%
27.0%
9.7%
5.8%
2.0%
0.7%
33.1%
4.3%
3.0%
1.2%
41.0%
1.4%
1.0%
51–1 13.7%2–1 9.7%1–0 9.4%0–0 8.0%2–0 7.0%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇵🇾PARParaguay1753effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1790
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- -37.5
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Miguel Almirón, Julio Enciso, Gustavo Gómez.
🇦🇺AUSAustralia1760effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1760
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Jackson Irvine, Mathew Ryan, Riley McGree.