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Group D · Matchday 3 · AT&T Stadium, Dallas · Jun 26, 02:00 UTC
🇹🇷 Türkiyevs🇺🇸 United States
34.3%draw 26.6%39.1%
Expected goals: TUR 1.15 · USA 1.60 · host advantage USA +55 Elo
| Source | TUR win | Draw | USA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.5% | 26.7% | 46.8% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 37.7% | 26.5% | 35.8% |
| Blend (published) | 34.3% | 26.6% | 39.1% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows TUR, columns USA
0123450
7.3%
7.8%
6.8%
3.6%
1.5%
18.3%
12.6%
7.9%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
25.5%
8.8%
5.4%
2.4%
1.0%
32.1%
3.4%
2.7%
1.1%
40.6%
1.0%
0.8%
51–1 12.6%2–1 8.8%1–0 8.3%1–2 7.9%0–1 7.8%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇹🇷TURTürkiye1870effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1870
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Arda Güler, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Kenan Yıldız.
🇺🇸USAUnited States1878effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1840
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- +37.5
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Christian Pulisic, Antonee Robinson, Weston McKennie.