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Group D · Matchday 2 · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara · Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
🇹🇷 Türkiyevs🇵🇾 Paraguay
47.1%draw 28.2%24.7%
Expected goals: TUR 1.84 · PAR 1.00
| Source | TUR win | Draw | PAR win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.4% | 24.3% | 19.2% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 43.2% | 29.8% | 27.0% |
| Blend (published) | 47.1% | 28.2% | 24.7% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows TUR, columns PAR
0123450
7.8%
6.4%
3.7%
1.2%
18.3%
13.4%
6.8%
2.3%
0.6%
28.3%
8.3%
5.7%
2.1%
0.5%
35.1%
5.1%
2.5%
1.2%
42.4%
2.3%
1.2%
50.9%
0.9%
1–1 13.4%2–0 8.3%1–0 8.3%2–1 8.3%0–0 7.8%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇹🇷TURTürkiye1870effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1870
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Arda Güler, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Kenan Yıldız.
🇵🇾PARParaguay1753effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1790
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- -37.5
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Miguel Almirón, Julio Enciso, Gustavo Gómez.