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Group D · Matchday 2 · Lumen Field, Seattle · Jun 19, 19:00 UTC
🇺🇸 United Statesvs🇦🇺 Australia
58.1%draw 22.8%19.1%
Expected goals: USA 2.13 · AUS 0.86 · host advantage USA +55 Elo
| Source | USA win | Draw | AUS win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.8% | 20.9% | 13.3% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 54.8% | 23.6% | 21.6% |
| Blend (published) | 58.1% | 22.8% | 19.1% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows USA, columns AUS
0123450
6.3%
5.2%
2.7%
0.8%
18.8%
10.8%
5.7%
1.6%
210.1%
8.7%
4.6%
1.7%
37.1%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
43.8%
3.3%
1.4%
51.6%
1.4%
0.6%
1–1 10.8%2–0 10.1%1–0 8.8%2–1 8.7%3–0 7.1%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇺🇸USAUnited States1878effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1840
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- +37.5
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Christian Pulisic, Antonee Robinson, Weston McKennie.
🇦🇺AUSAustralia1760effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1760
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Jackson Irvine, Mathew Ryan, Riley McGree.