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Group C · Matchday 3 · MetLife Stadium, New York/New Jersey · Jun 24, 22:00 UTC
🇲🇦 Moroccovs🇭🇹 Haiti
74.5%draw 16.4%9.1%
Expected goals: MAR 3.18 · HAI 0.58
| Source | MAR win | Draw | HAI win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 86.7% | 9.8% | 3.5% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 69.2% | 19.2% | 11.5% |
| Blend (published) | 74.5% | 16.4% | 9.1% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows MAR, columns HAI
0123450
4.5%
2.6%
1.0%
16.1%
7.8%
3.2%
0.6%
210.2%
5.9%
3.3%
1.0%
310.8%
6.2%
1.8%
0.7%
48.6%
5.0%
1.4%
55.5%
3.2%
0.9%
3–0 10.8%2–0 10.2%4–0 8.6%1–1 7.8%3–1 6.2%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇲🇦MARMorocco1915effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1915
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Achraf Hakimi, Brahim Díaz, Yassine Bounou.
🇭🇹HAIHaiti1590effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1590
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Danley Jean Jacques, Frantzdy Pierrot, Duckens Nazon.