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Group C · Matchday 3 · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City · Jun 24, 22:00 UTC
🏴 Scotlandvs🇧🇷 Brazil
13.0%draw 16.9%70.1%
Expected goals: SCO 0.64 · BRA 2.86
| Source | SCO win | Draw | BRA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 5.2% | 12.6% | 82.2% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 16.3% | 18.8% | 64.9% |
| Blend (published) | 13.0% | 16.9% | 70.1% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows SCO, columns BRA
0123450
4.7%
7.0%
10.5%
10.1%
7.2%
4.1%
13.7%
8.1%
6.8%
6.4%
4.6%
2.6%
21.5%
4.4%
3.4%
2.1%
1.5%
0.8%
30.9%
1.3%
0.7%
450–2 10.5%0–3 10.1%1–1 8.1%0–4 7.2%0–1 7.0%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🏴SCOScotland1755effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1755
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Scott McTominay, Andy Robertson, John McGinn.
🇧🇷BRABrazil2040effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2040
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, Alisson.