WC26 AnalyticsMonsterra Capital · World Cup 2026
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Group C · Matchday 2 · BMO Field, Toronto · Jun 20, 00:30 UTC

🇧🇷 Brazilvs🇭🇹 Haiti
95.8%draw 3.4%0.8%

Expected goals: BRA 4.42 · HAI 0.42

Scoreline probabilities

Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows BRA, columns HAI

0123450
0.9%
1
3.5%
1.6%
2
8.1%
3.4%
0.7%
3
11.9%
4.9%
1.0%
4
13.1%
5.5%
1.1%
5
11.6%
4.8%
1.0%
40 13.1%30 11.9%50 11.6%60 8.5%20 8.1%

Model factors

How each team's effective rating is built

🇧🇷BRA2040effective
Pre-tournament Elo
2040
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, Alisson.

🇭🇹HAI1590effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1590
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Danley Jean Jacques, Frantzdy Pierrot, Duckens Nazon.