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Group C · Matchday 2 · Gillette Stadium, Boston · Jun 19, 22:00 UTC
🏴 Scotlandvs🇲🇦 Morocco
20.5%draw 27.1%52.4%
Expected goals: SCO 0.89 · MAR 2.06
| Source | SCO win | Draw | MAR win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.5% | 21.8% | 63.7% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 23.1% | 29.4% | 47.5% |
| Blend (published) | 20.5% | 27.1% | 52.4% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows SCO, columns MAR
0123450
7.5%
8.2%
9.1%
6.3%
3.2%
1.3%
15.5%
12.9%
8.1%
5.6%
2.9%
1.2%
22.9%
6.0%
5.5%
2.5%
1.3%
0.5%
30.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.1%
451–1 12.9%0–2 9.1%0–1 8.2%1–2 8.1%0–0 7.5%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🏴SCOScotland1755effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1755
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Scott McTominay, Andy Robertson, John McGinn.
🇲🇦MARMorocco1915effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1915
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Achraf Hakimi, Brahim Díaz, Yassine Bounou.