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Group B · Matchday 3 · Estadio BBVA, Monterrey · Jun 24, 19:00 UTC
🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovinavs🇶🇦 Qatar
56.0%draw 25.7%18.3%
Expected goals: BIH 1.74 · QAT 1.06
| Source | BIH win | Draw | QAT win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.3% | 25.5% | 22.2% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 57.5% | 25.8% | 16.7% |
| Blend (published) | 56.0% | 25.7% | 18.3% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows BIH, columns QAT
0123450
7.1%
4.6%
2.8%
1.0%
110.4%
12.2%
4.9%
1.7%
29.9%
10.4%
5.2%
1.5%
35.7%
6.0%
3.2%
1.1%
42.5%
2.6%
1.4%
50.9%
0.9%
1–1 12.2%2–1 10.4%1–0 10.4%2–0 9.9%0–0 7.1%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇧🇦BIHBosnia & Herzegovina1754effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1750
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- +4.3
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Edin Džeko, Ermedin Demirović, Sead Kolašinac.
🇶🇦QATQatar1660effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1660
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Akram Afif, Almoez Ali, Bassam Al-Rawi.