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Group B · Matchday 3 · BMO Field, Toronto · Jun 24, 19:00 UTC
🇨🇭 Switzerlandvs🇨🇦 Canada
42.5%draw 27.9%29.6%
Expected goals: SUI 1.35 · CAN 1.36 · host advantage CAN +55 Elo
| Source | SUI win | Draw | CAN win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.0% | 27.7% | 36.3% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 45.3% | 27.9% | 26.8% |
| Blend (published) | 42.5% | 27.9% | 29.6% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows SUI, columns CAN
0123450
7.7%
6.6%
5.0%
2.3%
0.8%
19.5%
13.3%
6.8%
3.1%
1.0%
27.2%
9.8%
5.6%
2.1%
0.7%
33.2%
4.4%
3.0%
1.1%
41.1%
1.5%
1.0%
51–1 13.3%2–1 9.8%1–0 9.5%0–0 7.7%2–0 7.2%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇨🇭SUISwitzerland1860effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1860
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Granit Xhaka, Manuel Akanji, Breel Embolo.
🇨🇦CANCanada1806effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1810
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- -4.3
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, Stephen Eustáquio.