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Group B · Matchday 2 · BC Place, Vancouver · Jun 18, 22:00 UTC
🇨🇦 Canadavs🇶🇦 Qatar
72.5%draw 17.8%9.7%
Expected goals: CAN 2.29 · QAT 0.80 · host advantage CAN +55 Elo
| Source | CAN win | Draw | QAT win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.3% | 18.9% | 10.8% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 73.4% | 17.4% | 9.3% |
| Blend (published) | 72.5% | 17.8% | 9.7% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows CAN, columns QAT
0123450
4.9%
2.7%
1.3%
110.0%
8.5%
3.0%
0.8%
212.3%
9.8%
3.6%
0.9%
39.4%
7.5%
3.0%
0.7%
45.4%
4.3%
1.7%
52.5%
2.0%
0.8%
2–0 12.3%1–0 10.0%2–1 9.8%3–0 9.4%1–1 8.5%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇨🇦CANCanada1806effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1810
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- -4.3
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, Stephen Eustáquio.
🇶🇦QATQatar1660effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1660
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Akram Afif, Almoez Ali, Bassam Al-Rawi.