WC26 AnalyticsMonsterra Capital · World Cup 2026
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Group B · Matchday 2 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia · Jun 18, 19:00 UTC

🇨🇭 Switzerlandvs🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
57.9%draw 23.8%18.3%

Expected goals: SUI 1.79 · BIH 1.03

SourceSUI winDrawBIH win
Model54.3%25.0%20.7%
Market (Pinnacle)59.4%23.3%17.3%
Blend (published)57.9%23.8%18.3%

Scoreline probabilities

Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows SUI, columns BIH

0123450
6.6%
4.7%
2.8%
1.0%
1
10.5%
11.3%
5.0%
1.7%
2
10.2%
10.5%
4.8%
1.5%
3
6.1%
6.2%
3.2%
1.0%
4
2.7%
2.8%
1.4%
5
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
11 11.3%21 10.5%10 10.5%20 10.2%00 6.6%

Model factors

How each team's effective rating is built

🇨🇭SUI1860effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1860
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Granit Xhaka, Manuel Akanji, Breel Embolo.

🇧🇦BIH1754effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1750
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
+4.3
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Edin Džeko, Ermedin Demirović, Sead Kolašinac.