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Group A · Matchday 3 · Gillette Stadium, Boston · Jun 25, 01:00 UTC
🇿🇦 South Africavs🇰🇷 South Korea
16.5%draw 23.7%59.8%
Expected goals: RSA 0.93 · KOR 1.97
| Source | RSA win | Draw | KOR win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.3% | 22.8% | 60.9% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 16.6% | 24.0% | 59.4% |
| Blend (published) | 16.5% | 23.7% | 59.8% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows RSA, columns KOR
0123450
6.5%
9.8%
10.5%
6.9%
3.4%
1.3%
14.3%
11.3%
9.8%
6.4%
3.2%
1.3%
22.4%
4.7%
4.8%
3.0%
1.5%
0.6%
30.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
451–1 11.3%0–2 10.5%0–1 9.8%1–2 9.8%0–3 6.9%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇿🇦RSASouth Africa1678effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1700
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- -22.2
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Ronwen Williams, Teboho Mokoena, Themba Zwane.
🇰🇷KORSouth Korea1821effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1795
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- +26.1
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Son Heung-min, Lee Kang-in, Kim Min-jae.