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Group A · Matchday 3 · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara · Jun 25, 01:00 UTC
🇨🇿 Czechiavs🇲🇽 Mexico
19.4%draw 25.5%55.1%
Expected goals: CZE 0.93 · MEX 1.97 · host advantage MEX +55 Elo
| Source | CZE win | Draw | MEX win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.3% | 22.8% | 60.9% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 20.8% | 26.7% | 52.6% |
| Blend (published) | 19.4% | 25.5% | 55.1% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows CZE, columns MEX
0123450
7.0%
9.1%
9.7%
6.4%
3.1%
1.2%
15.1%
12.1%
9.0%
5.9%
2.9%
1.2%
22.8%
5.6%
5.2%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
30.9%
1.7%
1.7%
1.1%
451–1 12.1%0–2 9.7%0–1 9.1%1–2 9.0%0–0 7.0%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇨🇿CZECzechia1784effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1810
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- -26.1
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Patrik Schick, Tomáš Souček, Antonín Barák.
🇲🇽MEXMexico1872effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1850
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- +22.2
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Santiago Giménez, Edson Álvarez, Luis Romo.