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Group A · Matchday 2 · Estadio BBVA, Monterrey · Jun 19, 01:00 UTC
🇲🇽 Mexicovs🇰🇷 South Korea
49.5%draw 27.6%22.8%
Expected goals: MEX 1.79 · KOR 1.03 · host advantage MEX +55 Elo
| Source | MEX win | Draw | KOR win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.4% | 24.9% | 20.6% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 47.4% | 28.8% | 23.8% |
| Blend (published) | 49.5% | 27.6% | 22.8% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows MEX, columns KOR
0123450
7.6%
5.8%
3.5%
1.2%
19.0%
13.2%
6.2%
2.1%
0.5%
28.7%
9.0%
5.6%
1.9%
35.2%
5.3%
2.7%
1.1%
42.3%
2.4%
1.2%
50.8%
0.9%
1–1 13.2%2–1 9.0%1–0 9.0%2–0 8.7%0–0 7.6%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇲🇽MEXMexico1872effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1850
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- +22.2
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Santiago Giménez, Edson Álvarez, Luis Romo.
🇰🇷KORSouth Korea1821effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1795
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- +26.1
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Son Heung-min, Lee Kang-in, Kim Min-jae.