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Group A · Matchday 2 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta · Jun 18, 16:00 UTC
🇨🇿 Czechiavs🇿🇦 South Africa
54.3%draw 25.0%20.7%
Expected goals: CZE 1.79 · RSA 1.03
| Source | CZE win | Draw | RSA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.4% | 24.9% | 20.6% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 54.2% | 25.0% | 20.8% |
| Blend (published) | 54.3% | 25.0% | 20.7% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows CZE, columns RSA
0123450
6.9%
5.3%
3.2%
1.1%
19.8%
11.9%
5.7%
1.9%
29.6%
9.8%
5.1%
1.7%
35.7%
5.9%
3.0%
1.0%
42.6%
2.6%
1.3%
50.9%
0.9%
1–1 11.9%2–1 9.8%1–0 9.8%2–0 9.6%0–0 6.9%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇨🇿CZECzechia1784effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1810
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- -26.1
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Patrik Schick, Tomáš Souček, Antonín Barák.
🇿🇦RSASouth Africa1678effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1700
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- -22.2
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Ronwen Williams, Teboho Mokoena, Themba Zwane.